This is the full text of an interview given to a strana.ru correspondent by the Chief of the Russian Navy’s Hydrometeorological Centre, Captain Viktor Kotov, reviewing weather forecasting support for the Kursk lift.

        Q: The successful outcome of the Kursk lifting operation depends, in large measure, on weather conditions. This implies that there must be accurate and timely weather forecasting. Does the technical equipment of the Navy’s Hydrometeorological Centre allow you to cope fully with that task?

        A: There is an opinion that the military hydrometeorological service is “not as good” as the civilian weather forecasting service. Until recently, we really were behind the Russian Hydrometeorological Centre in terms of technical equipment.

        But we always had top class specialists working for us. Besides that, our naval weather forecasting centre has accumulated tremendous experience in supporting the fleet’s assignments, in forecasting the weather at sea.

        But the main thing is that the navy’s Hydrometeorological Centre (HMC) has taken a big step forward over the past 3-4 years: today, not a single branch of the services has the technical equipment that we have.

        We have received new information-gathering, processing and distribution systems that are hooked up to a local automated system for gathering and processing data.

        Today, each HMC of the fleet has such equipment that is on a par with the latest world achievements in this field. It allows us to obtain hydrometeorological information from the whole world, to process it and compile the necessary weather forecasts in the shortest time possible.

        I think I won’t be making a mistake if I say that we have started receiving a thousand times more information by volume than before.

        At one time, telegraph equipment was used for transmitting information. The data had to be deciphered and plotted on a map by hand, after which it was analysed by synoptic experts.

        In this manner, 6 to 8 hours were lost from the moment the readings were received from weather stations till the finished product, i.e., the weather forecast was made.

        But for the navy, unlike for instance, the air force, it is very important to have operative weather forecasts ahead of time (our ships are out at sea for long periods, and quite a lot of time is needed in order to change from a dangerous course).

        The system we have now enables us to obtain the finished data for analysis in a matter of an hour.

        Besides that, we now can uninterruptedly exchange data with all the HMCs of the Navy since all the centres are hooked up in a unified computer network.

        Q: If the Navy’s HMC now gets a thousand times more information by volume, this implies that its work is as many times more efficient?

        A: In order to get a clearer picture of the significance and quality of our work, I’ll give you several examples.

        Two years ago, Kaliningrad was hit by a powerful hurricane causing tremendous destruction and flooding part of the city. The civilian hydrometeorological service failed to predict it, but we had forecast it three days before it struck. All the required precautionary measures were taken, and the damage to the fleet was minimal.

        In the spring of this year, there were powerful storms in the Pacific, where civilian vessels found themselves in grave conditions, in distress, some of them sank and rescue operations were carried out.

        Not a single ship of the Russian Navy found itself in such a situation. This too is the result of our work.

        For example, right now a powerful typhoon is heading towards Japan. Judging by everything, it will cause a lot of damage and there may be large casualties. Absolutely all our ships in the Pacific have been warned and the necessary precautions have been taken.

        I can tell you that in the past five years, not a single of our naval ships has been in distress due to unfavourable weather conditions – we have always issued timely warnings.

        During winter, we delay departure or call back from 20 to 30 ships a week. In summer, this figure is somewhat smaller. For example, just last week we detained the departure to sea of two ships due to bad weather.

        Q: Are there any new areas in the work of the navy’s HMC, or does your work only involve compiling weather forecasts?

        A: During the past several years, we have been compiling forecasts for unfavourable impacts of meteorological and helio-geophysical factors that reduce working capacity, a person’s general condition and reaction, causing malfunctions and accidents of mechanisms and technical systems.

        Such phenomena as elevated solar activity, magnetic storms, planetary and lunar impacts, varying speeds of the Earth’s rotation, meteor currents may caused failures in the work of sophisticated technical systems, human errors in work and in decision making, social conflicts, pathological or delayed reaction to events.

        By predicting the onset of unfavourable conditions, we are able to give corresponding recommendations – to be more cautious. Sometimes we even recommend postponing complicated and hazardous jobs, since at the peak of baneful impacts there is a high probability that something might happen where there are inexperienced people, where equipment and machinery have a high percentage of wear-and-tear.

        Incidentally, the Kursk disaster came at precisely such a peak.

        The basic parameters we measure are wind (its direction and speed), sea, atmospheric phenomena, clouds, visibility and air and water temperatures. They are the basis of the forecasts. Given that the operation has not yet entered its most intensive phase, for the time being we get weather reports once in three hours. With the start of more complicated operations – the lifting and transportation of the submarine – weather reports will come every hour or more often if required. Now that a storm is raging, we are monitoring the situation every hour but so far weather conditions have not significantly limited the scope of the operations – up to five points.

        Weather forecasts in the operation area are made for one or three days or a week ahead. They are reported to the naval command, ships stationed in the area and the Rubin design bureau, who then pass them on to foreign operators on the spot.

        Q. How far ahead can forecasts compiled by the Navy’s hydro-meteorological service look?

        A. Seven days is the maximum. Generally speaking, it is possible to look father ahead. For example, Russia’s national weather-forecasting service has the technology to forecast the weather two months in advance but we do not have such instruments. We can make long-term forecasts only by analyzing climatic data.

        We have analyzed prevalent weather conditions in the disaster area for many years and now we know the prevailing direction of the wind at this time of year and how often the weather gets worse. The analysis shows that the weather at the end of September is rather unfavorable: it will be difficult to pinpoint favorable “windows” lasting five or six hours. It is difficult to say now whether the lifting operation will coincide with this sort of “window of opportunity.” The operation may be delayed by three or four days. However, I am confident that we’ll be able to make a fairly accurate forecast.

        I must say a forecast relying on the climatic method is only 55-60 percent accurate, and for that reason, other methods should be used too. If, for example, a forecast made only on the basis of the climatic factor were taken into account, the resultant message would be that it is impossible to bring the Kursk to the surface. Again, if the same method were to be used to forecast the weather situation in late September and early October, the resultant forecast would give only a 72% chance to a favourable window appearing at that time. But the weather was good during last year’s operation, although normally it is worse at that time of year. In other words, the situation changes from year to year. Therefore, we are going to cling to real forecasts and wait and see. The national weather service is helping us in every way, not least in the making of long-terms forecasts – for September and later for October.

        Q. Would you say that instead of relying on those windows of favourable weather it would have been better to set the lifting operation for a more favourable time of year when the weather is better?

        A. Yes, as far as weather conditions are concerned, the timeframe is not very convenient. July is the most favourable month but then, perhaps, it would have been impossible to carry out the operation in July for technical reasons. In my opinion, the technical side of the operation has been prepared in great detail. For example, the fact that the Mayo has been invited to join the operation is a very wise step. Normally, divers cannot do their job under rough seas of two points. But unlike the case with other ships, the diving bell is lowered from the lower part of the Mayo. The ship itself is more stable, and that is why in this case, divers can work under rough seas of up to five points.

        Q: When then did the sub go to sea? Were your forecasts ignored?

        A: There is no direct connection here. We just forecast unfavourable weather effects for the navy commander and the chief of staff. It doesn’t mean that something should happen on bad weather days. Such a probability increases if the personnel are poorly trained, and if a ship has not taken to sea for quite a long time. But it was all different with the Kursk. Its crew was experienced, and the sub had practiced performing its missions in the sea not long before the accident. But there could well be some nuances. And now, after the Kursk disaster, I have an order from the naval command – at times of the worst weather conditions, we are to circulate a telegramme in the navy and during those days, combat training involving going to sea or most risky operations is to be put off.

        Q: The storm is raging in the Barents Sea. How accurately did the naval weather-forecasting centre manage to warn about its coming?

        A: We knew already on August 16 that the wind would be growing stronger, that a cyclone was imminent. There are many different signs indicating future weather changes. For instance, a sharp drop in atmospheric pressure indicates that an atmospheric front is approaching or a cyclone is beginning to form. The cyclone we are talking about had originated in Norway. It swept all across the southern part of the Barents Sea, causing a considerable increase of the wind speed, up to 25 meters per second, in the place of the Kursk lifting.

        We gave our recommendations in good time – all vessels that were not fully seaworthy should leave the area and diving should be suspended. Only the Mayo and the Admiral Chabanenko stayed. All the other auxiliary vessels sailed towards the shore to wait in bays until the storm is over. The remaining ships took necessary safety action – they weighed anchor, sealed the bulkheads, the crews do not emerge on the upper deck, the seamen have increased the watch, and the ships are maneuvering to lessen oscillation.

        Q: How long will the storm last?

        A: Two more days. The wind speed will be 12 to 17 metres per second, the sea will be rather rough (wind force 5), that is, the conditions will be not very clear. Then the weather is expected to improve.

        Q: Will you, please, tell us in greater detail how weather forecasting for the Kursk accident area is made.

        A: A good deal has been done to provide timely weather forecasts during the Kursk salvage operation. Ships watching the weather and transmitting information to the weather forecasting centres of the Northern Fleet and Russia’s navy are constantly present in the area. Weather experts are on two of the ships, the hydrographic ships of the Northern Fleet. On board the other ships, weather conditions are studied by their crews. In this way, we get four or five reports from the area simultaneously. Besides, still another hydrographic ship is constantly at sea, 200 miles to the West of the place of the sub’s lifting.

        The ships are placed in a way that any weather changes can be registered. On the basis of the data thus obtained, it is possible to say precisely what will happen at the place of the salvage operation in 6 or 8 hours.

        ends